"ncasolowork2" (ncasolowork2)
03/30/2015 at 11:14 • Filed to: blackflag
4
21|
"ncasolowork2" (ncasolowork2)
03/30/2015 at 11:14 • Filed to: blackflag | 4
| 21 |
Lip service. This is all lip service to increase interest in the sport. I don't believe Ferrari beat Mercedes on pace and neither do !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! . However, the !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! right now is that Ferrari beat Mercedes fair and square.
!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!
The problems started in Q1. Mercedes used a set of medium tires in Q1. I believe they did that to preserve a set of hard tires for the race. They likely anticipated 3 stops all resulting in a set of hard tires being fitted. With hot temperatures and an abrasive track 3 stops were expected to be the normal strategy and I believe Mercedes used a set of medium tires in Q1 in anticipation of that. Eddie Jordan called them out !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! for it as well.
!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!
The next strategy mistake by Mercedes was calling Hamilton and Rosberg in on that first safety car. Apparently they were still expecting high degradation and called their drivers in to the pit (per their pre-race strategy). Vettel had shown an ability to stay with Hamilton up to that point and stayed out on track. The end result of this decision was Hamilton lost 10 seconds to Vettel in traffic. That 10 second deficit ended up being the final deficit. It would have been one Hamilton may have been able to close with another fresh set of option tires, but unfortunately the team didn't have any. Evidence of the ability of a set of used options can be seen from Rosberg's pace from his final stop to the end. After Lewis complained the team put Nico back on track on a set of used option tires. Nico closed the gap to Lewis, but only a little bit before leveling out.
In the end Ferrari was on pace with Mercedes all weekend in S1 and S3. Each of those sectors has a very long straight. That suggests Ferrari is on par in terms of straight line speed. However, in S2 almost all weekend Mercedes had the edge (considerably in practice) where downforce is concerned. This bodes well for Ferrari at Monza (wouldn't that be something). However, that suggests Mercedes is equal to Ferrari in terms of speed while retaining a bit more downforce. The end result is going to have to be strategy wins by Ferrari (or losses by Mercedes) not straight up wins.
Tripper
> ncasolowork2
03/30/2015 at 11:22 |
|
R Saldana [|Oo|======|oO|] - BTC/ETH/LTC Prophet
> ncasolowork2
03/30/2015 at 11:26 |
|
Arrivabene seems to be very in tune with the car/driver/team/strategy needs. I'm not a Ferrari fan but I can for sure appreciate the almost "Red Bull-Horner-esque" attention to team operation.
SidewaysOnDirt still misses Bowie
> R Saldana [|Oo|======|oO|] - BTC/ETH/LTC Prophet
03/30/2015 at 11:35 |
|
Red-Bull-Horner-esque, but also appreciative of his team. I've never seen Horner so enthusiastically thank and congratulate anyone other than Newey on the pit wall like that.
|
SidewaysOnDirt still misses Bowie
> ncasolowork2
03/30/2015 at 11:38 |
|
Mercedes lost this one. Ferrari called everything perfectly, but I think that Mercedes were too overconfident. While Ferrari were splitting their free practice strategy to get as much data as they could on the tires, Mercedes seemed to be running the same program on both cars and wasted their tires. I think that they got too confident and played it too conservatively. They thought that they'd have the pace to beat Ferrari on the harder compound, but they clearly didn't. It should have been obvious by Saturday morning, but I don't think they were focusing on the competition because they didn't think they'd have any.
Corz
> ncasolowork2
03/30/2015 at 11:42 |
|
Ferrari is on pace with the Mercs, and Ferrari didn't fuck up its strategy. Thats a fair fight if you ask me.
jariten1781
> ncasolowork2
03/30/2015 at 11:48 |
|
My wife and I were arguing about this. I considered it a win in a straight fight- better strategy deployed purposefully throughout the entire weekend with enough pace to make it work. She considered it a gimmick result akin to running extra low on fuel hoping on enough cautions to coast over the line or holding out way long on a tire stint hoping for track position when rain came.
Of course I'm right.
Bakkster, touring car driver
> ncasolowork2
03/30/2015 at 12:03 |
|
It was definitely a strategy win, but that's still a fair win.
ttyymmnn
> jariten1781
03/30/2015 at 12:07 |
|
Of course I'm right.
I'll tell you said that.
Pitchblende
> ncasolowork2
03/30/2015 at 12:07 |
|
Ferrari did make use of better strategy to win, but had the relative pace been the same as last year then Mercedes would have most probably powered their way back to victory. It may not be parity, but it is a damn sight closer than last year.
Bob Loblaw Made Me Make a Phoney Phone Call to Edward Rooney
> ncasolowork2
03/30/2015 at 12:11 |
|
I think you're probably right. I had two takeaways:
1) Ferrari is good on tires, Merc is average. I think a lot of that goes to Kimi's driving style and his input on the dev of the SF15 (see also: E20/E21). Malaysia is one of the places where this will be most evident, may not be as big an impact later in the year but definitely could be at the high-load/high-speed tracks
2) My god, as an organization Mercedes is simply not good under pressure. Both of the drivers and everyone on the pit wall were in complete shambles all weekend. Bad strategy/tire choices, bad reactions to misfortune...just an all-around shitshow. It wasn't ever much of any issue last year because of the gap to the rest of the field, but you could see it then too. There may actually be a bigger opening for competition if Ferrari is actually fairly close to the Merc and can apply some pressure, even if they're still not quite there on full pace. Can you imagine if Kimi hadn't suffered his lap 2 puncture and showed the pace that Vettel did and was mixing it up with the two Mercs? Methinks would have been a complete meltdown in the Mercedes garage!
nich
> ncasolowork2
03/30/2015 at 12:22 |
|
Glad someone made this post, I think in the end what it really comes down to is that Lewis didn't have a set of options for his last stint to go after Vettel. Vettel was able to preserve the gap to Hamilton with Lewis on the harder tire, with help from the Ferrari's superior tire degradation. The gap surely would have eroded quickly had Mercedes saved another fresh set of options for Sunday.
|
ncasolowork2
> Bakkster, touring car driver
03/30/2015 at 13:07 |
|
Totally agree. Strategy is a way to win the race. The headline is the point. They didn't beat them by being faster on pace. Mercedes is saying Ferrari was faster and I am calling BS on that.
|
ncasolowork2
> Corz
03/30/2015 at 13:07 |
|
Totally agree. Strategy is a way to win the race. The headline is the point. They didn't beat them by being faster on pace. Mercedes is saying Ferrari was faster and I am calling BS on that.
|
ncasolowork2
> Tripper
03/30/2015 at 13:10 |
|
Not the point I'm making. Mercedes is calling Ferrari faster this week. I'm calling BS on that. Ferrari was better. They weren't faster. And that's a good thing. I like Ferrari. They finally have drivers i don't despise (not a fan of Massa or Alonso) so I was excited to see them win. Really excited to see Vettel lap Red Bull. Even more excited to see his reaction to winning with Ferrari.
davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
> ncasolowork2
03/30/2015 at 14:35 |
|
Yup. Found this:
(darker gray is HAM, darker red is VET)
Nico's fast lap was a full second quicker than Hamilton's.
Each driver's fastest lap:
!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!
http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2015/03/29/mer…
|
ncasolowork2
> davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
03/30/2015 at 15:07 |
|
That chart is actually a bad argument. The part that is a reasonable argument is Hamilton v. Vettel, but Vettel set his a lap later on tires that were at least a couple laps older. Rosberg wasn't on the same tires. That's genuinely an apples to oranges type of thing. Looking at Hamilton's pace vs. Vettel's pace over the entirety of the last stint when they were both on hard tires that were relatively the same age is the most legitimate comparison on laps where no back markers were involved. Otherwise apples to oranges.
|
davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
> ncasolowork2
03/30/2015 at 15:17 |
|
I'm just looking at the "gray" pace vs. the "red" pace on average. It's clear that the Mercedes were faster, and that Ferrari's and Vettel's win was on strategy/management, not pace.
And the lap Rosberg was able to put down on those worn options shows it as well.
StingrayJake
> ncasolowork2
03/30/2015 at 16:00 |
|
My way of seeing it was that Mercedes had overall pace over Ferrari (obviously not in straight line speed, but overall) but tire and pit strategy ultimately won the race. That doesn't mean Ferrari wasn't plenty fast in Malaysia, but it also doesn't mean Ferrari is suddenly a world beater.
A lot of factors conspired to get Ferrari back on top and guess what, that's racing — and that's why we love it.
DasWauto
> davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
03/30/2015 at 17:04 |
|
Quick note: Rosberg's lap was on new options. He pitted on lap 42, as shown by the bump in that chart.
I'd say the best comparison of pace was Hamilton and Vettel's fastest laps. Each were 5 or so laps into a stint and Hamilton put down a lap on the hard tire 0.5 seconds quicker than Vettel on the faster medium compound.
Realistically the gap is probably still 1 second+ on ultimate pace but as Mercedes have proven, that's not worth it if you can't make the tires last. It's clear though that Ferrari has improved massively and I hope they can keep up that progress.
Right now we don't have enough to definitively say much but we'll get a clearer picture of where everyone stands as the season carries on.
|
davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
> DasWauto
03/30/2015 at 17:07 |
|
Thanks for the correction. Definitely agree about hoping Ferrari can take the fight to them this year. Not exactly a big fan of the scuderia in general, but I'll be rooting for Seb and Kimi for sure.
Blubya
> ncasolowork2
03/30/2015 at 17:30 |
|
I too have been thinking that Mercedes is going to have to do something to get the heat off of them. When a team like Red Bull, who have a disproportionate pull with Bernie, bitch so loudly you have a real problem. The idea is to be smooth like Red Bull was for three and a half years, the first part of their four year run they did what Mercedes has done, showing off their advantage. Now it might be that Mercedes is playing the game that Bernie wants them to play, entertainment.
I strongly doubt that tire management was used to achieve this positive result for F1, I think they just played with PU software and dialed in a Monza + aero package to the wings. Look at the condition of the front and rear wings, they are so high that they are not so much pushing the car into the track but creating a wall against which the car must fight against. Think of it this way, Mercedes knew that there were massive straights in Malaysia and knew an areo slick car with good power would bring them close to Mercedes if Mercedes dialed in huge wing angles, Ferrari, the King of straight line speed could play that game.
It will be highly interesting to see just how far Mercedes will go to get the heat of PU equalization off the lips of Red Bull. At this stage I think all the decisions have been made, give away three races tops.